The Calm Before the Store: 2024 Freight Market Review & 2025 Outlook | Cargoccino 12.10.24
As the freight industry reflects on 2024, one truth emerges: disruption isn’t an exception—it’s the new normal.
This year’s seismic shifts in trade policies, labor disputes, and capacity challenges tested supply chains globally. Looking ahead to 2025, supply chain leaders must prepare for another dynamic year, balancing risks and opportunities with precision.
In this last Cargoccino of 2024, we look into the pivotal events of 2024 that reshaped freight markets and provide insights into the challenges our supply chains must anticipate in 2025. From procurement teams to logistics managers, here’s what you need to know—and how to act.
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2024 Freight Market Review: Key Disruptions That Shaped the Industry
1. Geopolitical Events and Trade Policy Shifts
2024 was a record year for elections, spurring a resurgence in protectionist trade policies. These shifts disrupted key trade lanes between the U.S., China, and the EU, forcing supply chains to adapt sourcing strategies and rethink routing.
This political volatility underscored the need for resilience in global trade.
Sources: Thomson reuters | Freightos | McKinsey
2. Mergers and Acquisitions
DSV’s €14.3 billion acquisition of Schenker was a game-changer, creating one of the largest logistics players in the industry. This merger heightened competition, driving smaller players to consider partnerships, innovation, or exit strategies. The consolidation trend reflected an industry-wide shift toward end-to-end service integration.
Source: DSV
3. Dockworker Strikes
October 2024 saw U.S. dockworker strikes halt operations at key East and Gulf Coast ports. The three-day disruption delayed thousands of shipments and highlighted vulnerabilities in port labor relations. While a tentative agreement was reached, the strikes exposed the fragility of just-in-time supply chains.
Sources: JOC | East Coast Strike Coverage
4. E-commerce’s Impact on Air Cargo
E-commerce growth continued to outpace air cargo capacity, a trend exacerbated by Boeing’s production struggles. Retailers scrambled to secure space during peak seasons, while hybrid sea-air models emerged as a temporary solution.
This mismatch emphasized the need for flexible freight strategies.
Source: ECDB
5. The Red Sea Crisis
The geopolitical crisis in the Red Sea exposed the fragility of global trade, particularly for high-value goods like electronics, automotive parts, and oil. Key container routes experienced severe disruptions, leading to extended congestion at major ports. Shippers faced rerouted cargo, higher transportation costs, and delays that rippled through supply chains. However, feeder operators capitalized on the situation, stepping in to transport perishable goods and adapt to shifting trade patterns, showcasing the importance of agility in freight logistics.
Source: Freightos
6. Organized Cargo Crime
California accounted for nearly half of all U.S. cargo theft incidents in Q3, with organized crime focusing on high-value loads like electronics and pharmaceuticals. This surge highlights the critical need for enhanced tracking, robust security protocols, and collaboration between carriers and enforcement agencies to mitigate risks.
Source: LandLine
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2025 Freight Market Outlook: Challenges and Strategies for Supply Chains
1. Potential Dockworker Strikes
Labor unrest continues to loom large. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) has warned of a potential strike if contract negotiations fail by January 15, 2025. Such a strike could halt operations at key U.S. ports, causing severe disruptions to shipments and global supply chains. Businesses are urged to develop contingency plans and explore alternative logistics strategies to mitigate potential delays and financial losses.
Source: World Cargo News
2. Alliance Restructuring
The reshuffling of shipping alliances expected in 2025 will redefine global trade dynamics, impacting capacity allocation and service levels. Past alliance changes have shown how such shifts can lead to pricing instability and scheduling challenges, emphasizing the importance of flexible logistics strategies. To remain competitive, businesses must strengthen partnerships with carriers and adjust planning to account for potential disruptions.
Sources: JOC | Lars Jansen in The Freight Buyers' Club (What it means for Shippers)
3. New Tariff Regimes
The proposed reinstatement of tariffs on $350 billion worth of Chinese goods is raising alarm across supply chains heading into 2025. Shippers anticipate cost increases of up to 20% on certain imports, further complicating procurement and logistics strategies. As tariffs threaten profitability, businesses are accelerating nearshoring efforts and diversifying suppliers to mitigate exposure to escalating trade barriers.
Source: CNBC
4. Continued Air Cargo Capacity Constraints
Air cargo capacity is set to face significant pressure in 2025, driven by rising e-commerce demand and ongoing fleet shortages due to production delays at major manufacturers like Boeing. Industry experts warn that available capacity may fall short of demand peaks, creating bottlenecks. Businesses should secure bookings well in advance and consider multimodal solutions to offset potential disruptions and cost increases.
Source: AirCargo News
5. Adopting Technology (AI) for Risk Mitigation
In 2025, adopting the right technology partner is critical as organizations face increasing global risks. While AI-powered tools unlock insights into supplier performance and risk management, challenges such as data readiness, workforce upskilling, and system integration hinder adoption. Overcoming these barriers through strategic investment is essential for building resilience and ensuring long-term success in an evolving supply chain landscape.
Source: GEP - Procurement & Supply Chain Key Trends 2025
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Key Takeaways
> Address tariff risks by diversifying suppliers and exploring nearshoring opportunities.
> Plan for alliance restructuring to secure reliable capacity and service levels.
> Lock in air cargo capacity early to manage demand fluctuations.
> Enhance flexibility to tackle e-commerce-driven constraints and cost pressures.
> Leverage AI and automation to improve Financial visibility, optimize operations, and build resilience with Risk mitigation
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☕ What is Brewing at BlueCargo? ☕
As you may know, BlueCargo is known to continuously adapt and innovate to meet the needs of your global supply chains. Celebrated for our expertise in auditing inbound and import containerized freight invoices, we are thrilled to announce a powerful expansion: We now audit export freight invoices.
Whether you're shipping goods internationally or streamlining domestic supply chains, BlueCargo's enhanced services empower you with exceptional precision and efficiency in your logistics operations. By incorporating export auditing into our industry-leading capabilities, we ensure that your invoices—both inbound and outbound—are compliant, accurate, and optimized for cost savings.
With our AI-powered tools, we will strengthen your financial core and equip your company with the resilience needed to thrive in 2025 and beyond.
Don’t let tariffs, capacity issues, or a potential Port strike slow you down. Let’s have a conversation about ensuring you are prepared for 2025.
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Summary - Cargoccino 12.10.24
2024 Freight Market Review: Key Disruptions
- Record-breaking elections and protectionism reshaped global trade policies.
- DSV’s acquisition of Schenker intensified competition in logistics.
- Dockworker strikes highlighted vulnerabilities in U.S. port operations.
- Boeing’s production delays strained air cargo capacity amidst rising e-commerce demand.
- Geopolitical unrest in the Red Sea disrupted container trade.
- Organized cargo theft surged, especially in California.
2025 Freight Market Outlook: Challenges and Strategies
- Potential dockworker strikes in January 2025 could disrupt supply chains.
- Restructuring among shipping alliances may impact trade lanes and service levels.
- New tariffs threaten to alter sourcing patterns and inflate costs.
- Air cargo capacity shortages and rate volatility remain critical concerns.
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